California's quest to build a high-speed rail system between San Francisco and Los Angeles suffered a heavy blow Tuesday when a peer-review committee recommended that state legislators not fund the project until major changes are made to the business plan for the increasingly controversial line.
In a scathing report, the California High-Speed Rail Peer Review Group found that the business plan the California High-Speed Rail Authority unveiled in early November offers inadequate information about funding, fails to answer the critical question of which operating segment will be built first and features a phased-construction plan that would violate state law. The group, which is chaired by Will Kempton, recommends that the state Legislature not authorize expenditure of bond money for the project until its concerns are met.
The report deals the latest of several recent setbacks to the project, for which state voters approved a $9.95 billion bond in 2008. Since then, the project's price tag more than doubled and several agencies, including the Legislative Analyst's Office and Office of the State Auditor, released critical reports about the project.
High-speed rail has become particularly controversial on the Peninsula, where several grassroots groups have sprung up in the last two years to oppose it. Menlo Park, Atherton and Palo Alto had filed a lawsuit challenging the rail authority's environmental analysis and the Palo Alto City Council last month adopted as the city's official position a call for the project's termination.
In its letter to the Legislature, the peer review group highlighted some of the same flaws that local officials and watchdogs have long complained about, most notably a deeply flawed funding plan. The project currently has about $6 billion in committed funding and the rail authority plans to make up much of the balance from federal grants and private investments -- investments that would be solicited after the first major segment of the line is constructed. The peer-review group found this plan to be vague and insufficient.
"The fact that the Funding Plan fails to identify any long term funding commitments is a fundamental flaw in the program," the report states. "Without committed funds, a mega-project of this nature could be forced to halt construction for many years before additional funding could be obtained. The benefits of any independent utility proposed by the current Business Plan would be very limited versus the cost and the impact on state finances."
The group also faulted the rail authority's business plan for failing to choose the "initial operating segment" for the rail line. Though the authority has decided to build the first leg of the line in Central Valley, this segment would not be electrified and would serve largely as a corridor for testing the new line. The first "true" high-speed rail segment would be built later and would stretch either north toward San Jose or south toward San Fernando Valley.
Though the peer-review group acknowledged that a phased approach is the only feasible way to build the system, it also found that this plan violates a requirement of Proposition 1A, which mandates that the rail authority identify funding for the first usable segment of the line before construction begins. The Central Valley segment, the peer report notes, "is not a very high-speed railway (VHSR), as it lacks electrification, a CHSR train control system, and a VHSR compatible communication system. Therefore, it does not appear to meet the requirements of the enabling State legislation."
The peer review group also wrote in its letter that the authority should have determined in its business plan whether the first "operating segment" would go north or south from the Central Valley. Its letter states that "it is hard to seriously consider a multi-billion dollar Funding Plan that offers no position on which IOS should be initiated first."
"This indecision may also have consequences in obtaining environmental clearances. We believe that the Funding Plan as proposed should not be approved until the first IOS is selected."
The report reserves "final judgment" on the funding plan because the rail authority's business plan is still in draft form and subject to revisions. But it also makes clear that major changes would have to be made before the project warrants state funding. The letter notes that while legislators could potentially come up with a funding source for the project, without such a source "the project as it is currently planned is not financially 'feasible.'"
"Therefore, pending review of the final Business Plan and absent a clearer picture of where future funding is going to come from, the Peer Review Group cannot at this time recommend that the Legislature approve the appropriation of bond proceeds for this project," the peer group's letter concludes.
The new report presents a potentially devastating blow to the rail authority, which is banking on getting $2.7 billion in Proposition 1A funds for construction of the Central Valley segment. The agency has also received $3.5 billion in federal grants.
The state funds are particularly critical given the lack of private investment and increasing local opposition. The authority had acknowledged that private investment would not start coming in until later phases. Future federal funding is also deeply uncertain at a time when many Republicans in the House of Representatives are vehemently opposing the project.
The rail authority responded to the report by disputing many of its findings and by claiming that it "suffers from a lack of appreciation of how high-speed rail systems have been constructed throughout the world." The authority also said in a statement that the peer-review group's report "makes unrealistic and unsubstantiated assumptions about private sector involvement in such systems and ignores or misconstrues the legal requirements that govern the construction of the high speed rail program in California."
Roelof van Ark, CEO of the rail authority, said in a statement that the recommendation of the committee "simply do not reflect a real world view of what it takes to bring such projects to fruition."
"It is unfortunate that the Peer Review Committee has delivered a report to the Legislature that is deeply flawed in its understanding of the Authority's program and the experience around the world in successfully developing high speed rail," van Ark said.
Rail authority officials also argued that the peer-review group's report could jeopardize federal funding for the project. Thomas Umberg, chair of the authority's board of directors, said the board takes seriously "legitimate critiques" of the rail program, including recommendations that the authority hire more staff.
"However, what is most unfortunate about this Report is not its analytical deficiency, but that it would create a cloud over the program that threatens not only federal support but also the confidence of the private sector necessary for them to invest their dollars," Umberg said in a statement.
The authority's Chief Counsel Thomas Fellenz called the committee's findings about the project's inconsistency with Proposition 1A "unfounded assumptions." The group's legal conclusions, he said in a statement, are not only "beyond the expertise of the authors, but attorneys at the state and federal government level and the legislative author of the bond measure, profoundly disagree."
The authority also submitted an eight-page letter to state Legislators responding to the peer-review group's criticisms. The authority disputed in its letter the peer-review group's finding that the "initial construction segment" in Central Valley would violate Proposition 1A and argued that the group's demand for a long-term funding plan fails to consider how major transportation projects are normally built.
"By this measure, none of the unconstrained regional transportation plans of any transportation authority should be pursued," the letter from Umberg states. "No project, in our experience, has fully identified funding sources for the entire project at this stage and it is both unfortunate and inappropriate for the Committee to apply this test only to high speed rail."
Comments
Crescent Park
on Jan 3, 2012 at 8:49 pm
on Jan 3, 2012 at 8:49 pm
And so, another panel of experts has declared HSR a fiscal bomb. In response, Roelf van Ark declares that yet another group of experts is confused and isn't really competent to evaluate the California High Speed Rail Project. I would not expect Roelf to say anything other than to regurgitate the lies and spin the CA HSR is well known for.
The real question is whether the CA Legislature will heed the advise of its own panel of experts, and stop HSR in its tracks. Sadly, I'm not sure they will. The CA HSR project has long been exposed for what it really is, a hundred billion (likely more) gifts to the CA Labor unions, who have either secured, or are well on their way to securing, so called "Project Labor Agreements", guaranteeing them virtually unlimited authority to charge what ever they want to attempt to build this greased pig on rails. In exchange, the Democrats in Sacramento are expecting the CA Labor unions to get out the vote, and perpetuate this cycle of robbing the tax payers to line the pockets of politically well connected people. It's a disgrace, nothing more. I noticed that after summary of the report was released today, the only people speaking out in support of the HSR project was the CA HSR Authority, and representatives from the CA labor unions. Notice, that mass transit has long ceased being a reason to build the train to nowhere. Mass transit was the huge fig leaf covering something too hideous to behold, but the fig leaf fell off long ago.
The CA HSR project was a fraud from the start, and it's time for Sacramento to de-fund the CA HSR Authority, de-authorize the CA HSR Authority, and send it's leaders to the unemployment line.
Leland Manor/Garland Drive
on Jan 3, 2012 at 11:14 pm
on Jan 3, 2012 at 11:14 pm
HSR Authority credibility drops to new low when their leader, Roelof van Ark, attempts to spin away from the most recent damming findings by the California High-Speed Rail Peer Review Group.
This group essentially echoed what so many other independent analysts have been warning for over a year now, "cut this HSR turkey loose now before it financially sinks all of California."
Midtown
on Jan 4, 2012 at 12:01 am
on Jan 4, 2012 at 12:01 am
State Senator Simitian and Assemblyman Gordon should be representing their constituents and leading the fight to shut down the HSR; instead they are come up with cute phrases like "I support HSR done right". It's just an indication that they favor special interests over their districts. Report after report highlight that HSR is a project that is a pipe dream.
Throw in Governor Brown - he says that taxes need to be raised, yet he wants to spend money on HSR. Another politican who is in the pocket of special interests.
Leland Manor/Garland Drive
on Jan 4, 2012 at 9:28 am
on Jan 4, 2012 at 9:28 am
Rich Gordon is taking a "neutral" position on high speed rail because he wants more campaign contributions from construction labor unions. Look at his last campaign finance report. His biggest contributors are construction unions. That is who he works for, not the people of the Peninsula.
Barron Park
on Jan 4, 2012 at 7:46 pm
on Jan 4, 2012 at 7:46 pm
Remember that every other HSR in the world is subsidized by taxpayers, not by operating profits. In 2009 only one line in Great Britain (which became privately owned and operated) broke even or made a small profit.
Not a single advocate for the California HSR mentions the need for heavy subsidies in similar systems world wide. They only say systems in other countries are "successful".
Leland Manor/Garland Drive
on Jan 5, 2012 at 12:35 am
on Jan 5, 2012 at 12:35 am
Bernie Madoff cooked the books for nearly 40 years and only got his Ponzi scheme total up to $65 billion. 'The biggest financial fraud in history,' the press has called it.
HSR Authority CEO Roelof van Ark is on track to surpass Bernie by 50%. HSR is fast developing into a $100 billion Ponzi scheme aided and abetted by state and federal politicians in labors' pocket.
HSR is following Bernie's scheme right down the line:
Step 1. Claim big benefits.
Step 2. Collect money from unsuspecting suckers.
Step 3. Live the high life for years on someone else's hard earned nickel (our tax dollars).
Step 4. Years later, fess up when the jig is up.
Step 5. Go to jail, go directly to jail for 150 years.
CEO van Ark is only likely to avoid Step 5. But he must walk a tight rope since some of his blatantly false and misleading statements may precede a bond offering which involves SEC rules and oversight. Legal exposure here may be significant.
Wouldn't it be poetic justice if SEC rules applied to politicians in this case, and many egregious others?
Registered user
Midtown
on Jan 5, 2012 at 6:08 am
Registered user
on Jan 5, 2012 at 6:08 am
HSR should change its goal from LA-SF to LA-Sacramento, with a branch to San Jose. SF is yesterday.
Palo Verde
on Jan 5, 2012 at 6:13 am
on Jan 5, 2012 at 6:13 am
Please,
would someone name the folks that are challenging the HSR and LIST THEIR QUALIFICATIONS
Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Jan 5, 2012 at 10:49 am
on Jan 5, 2012 at 10:49 am
@senor blogger
here is the link to the Peer Committee website (includes biographies of the members)
Web Link
Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Jan 5, 2012 at 10:59 am
on Jan 5, 2012 at 10:59 am
@Walter_Wallis
I would like to see the Caltrain right-of-way converted to a BART line...let's use our most precious resource (land) for actual local commutes, rather than periodic travel to SoCal.
A BART line from SJ-Diridon, to SJC, then up the peninsula to SFO, then on to King St SF, and then continuing through SOMA, under Mosconi center and connecting to Downtown Market street (and onward to the Trans-Bay Tunnel) would improve Bay Area commuting tremendously. We could consolidate local rail travel under a single overhead structure (BART). Use the existing HSR funds only to buy up the land rights-of-way necessary to build HSR between SJ and LA (and everything in between, including the Central Valley)...but invite private contractors to a bid to BUILD & OPERATE the HSR line for some predetermined period of time...and at the end of which the ownership of the line reverts back to the state (kind of like the way some toll roads are built). This would eliminate the risk of public operating subsidies (like Caltrain suffers today)...and it would also validate or invalidate the current HSR body's business plan assumptions.
Just my two cents.
another community
on Jan 5, 2012 at 11:03 am
on Jan 5, 2012 at 11:03 am
Walter_E_Wallis might be knocking S.F. too hard, but the point is taken that politics has driven the route end-to-end. In particular, would the south bay alignment have been selected if S.J. train-boy Rod Diridon weren't in the cab; how much did "saving Caltrain" have to do with CHSR proposing to share right-of-way on the peninsula; and, why are S.F. officials so eager that they've already begun work on the Transbay Terminal?
Menlo Park
on Jan 5, 2012 at 12:20 pm
on Jan 5, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Love that the HSR say the new report "suffers from a lack of appreciation of how high-speed rail systems have been constructed throughout the world."
In other words in the view of HSR, everyone except HSR is too stupid.
Registered user
Midtown
on Jan 5, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Registered user
on Jan 5, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Where is the potential for expansion greater, Sacramento or San Francisco?
Registered user
Midtown
on Jan 5, 2012 at 1:16 pm
Registered user
on Jan 5, 2012 at 1:16 pm
...and if anyone converts, BART should be converted to standard gauge, modern electric drive. 750 volt 3rd rail vs 25,000 v overhead - no contest. BART is a fossil.
Another Palo Alto neighborhood
on Jan 6, 2012 at 11:22 am
on Jan 6, 2012 at 11:22 am
@Walter
I was not suggesting that BART is technologically "better" -- the point I was trying to make is that a single unified Bay Area transportation system would be better than what we have today - a fragmented, poorly coordinated, and excessively overheady collection of political pet systems.
I know this firsthand. I have, despite my better judgement, taken public transit to and from both the San Jose and San Francisco airports. It should not take three or four system transfers and 2-3 hours to travel between SFO and Palo Alto.
FYI - we are about to get another disparate fragmented system with the upcoming construction of SMART - the Sonoma and Marin (Counties) Area Rapid Transit.
Registered user
University South
on Jan 6, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Registered user
on Jan 6, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Alex has a good point both technically and in terms of the policy debate.
On the techncial side I know that regional transportation leaders can find much better use for the HSR money in expanding road and public transist access for commuters--more bang for the buck.
In terms of the public debate I think the folks who find HSR to be a poorly structured project can do more by offering constructive alternatives than by simply being negative.
We have kind of a circling the wagons mentality going on with the advocates as report after report points out flaws. Let's help give people a constructive alternative.
I do think state leaders should ask the President and Congress to allow reallocation of the federal money so it is not wasted.
Midtown
on Jan 6, 2012 at 1:50 pm
on Jan 6, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Meanwhile, Governor Brown wants to raise California taxes by about $7 Billion per year.
Web Link
We are ALREADY one of the most taxed states (total and per capita) even BEFORE you consider the back door taxes (like the enormous public fees, tuition, tolls, etc...).
Do we currently have $100 Billion to spend on a fast train of which the pressing "need" for it is highly debatable?
Los Altos
on Jan 6, 2012 at 3:35 pm
on Jan 6, 2012 at 3:35 pm
It’s time to cancel the California high speed rail project and disband CHSRA. This is due to the ballooning project costs and continuing dishonesty on the part of the California High Speed Rail Authority. The latest revelation is that claims that high speed rail would create a million jobs have been proven false. The San Jose Mercury explains “The 1-million figure came from the project's technical studies. It actually was the number of "job years," a statistical term that counts years of work rather than actual jobs. One person working for five years adds up to five job years in this parlance.”
The high speed rail project now being pushed by the Governor and the High Speed Rail Authority is not the same project that the voters approved in 2008. The Authority is guilty of pulling a “bait and switch” on taxpayers, who live in a state in deep denial of its financial problems.
Community Center
on Jan 6, 2012 at 6:48 pm
on Jan 6, 2012 at 6:48 pm
As a follow on to Alex Pinelli's and Steve Levy's points, where is the Metropolitan Transportation Commission in this discussion? I have seen little mention of its participation in this entire matter. I may have missed it, but I follow this carefully enough to have an initial point of view that it could be doing more.
It may be that the Commission needs more "teeth." It has overview responsibility to coordinate with the various transit agencies in the 9 county area, but it is constrained on what it does/can do to drive policy and operational exigencies. I am unclear what sort of advocacy role, if any, it has.
HSR is not going to happen, of that I am certain. One bi-product of its failure could be to make MTC more robust, leading to a much more integrated and seamless transit program in this part of the world.
Registered user
Midtown
on Jan 8, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Registered user
on Jan 8, 2012 at 6:54 pm
HSR need to be changed to freight friendly. 150 mph freight and express would really take the trucks off 5. You could sneak a few 200 mph passengers in between but freight would pay the bills.
another community
on Jan 10, 2012 at 10:53 pm
on Jan 10, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Peer review critical of California's HSR plan @ Web Link