Read the full story here Web Link posted Tuesday, March 10, 2015, 2:12 PM
https://n2v.paloaltoonline.com/square/print/2015/03/10/new-earthquake-forecast-shows-greater-chance-of-magnitude-8-temblors
Town Square
New earthquake forecast shows greater chance of magnitude-8 temblors
Original post made on Mar 10, 2015
Read the full story here Web Link posted Tuesday, March 10, 2015, 2:12 PM
Comments
Posted by Wayne Martin
a resident of Fairmeadow
on Mar 10, 2015 at 4:02 pm
a resident of Fairmeadow
on Mar 10, 2015 at 4:02 pm
For folks looking for a little more detail--
Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The Time-Independent Model:
Web Link
Posted by Terry
a resident of Midtown
on Mar 10, 2015 at 10:35 pm
a resident of Midtown
on Mar 10, 2015 at 10:35 pm
Wayne... thanks for the link
Posted by Cascadia locked and loaded
a resident of Barron Park
on Mar 11, 2015 at 10:35 pm
a resident of Barron Park
on Mar 11, 2015 at 10:35 pm
Ever wonder about the 3D interplay within the multitude of parallel and opposing (constraining) fault systems and how their stress transfer among fault systems may more accurately forecast hot spots for fault rupture and surface rupture, which is the nexus for understanding future potential major quake damage scenarios?
Then dial in to the next big international consortium of geophysicists at the Seismological Society of America annual mtg in Padadena 4/21-23, which can be viewed online at SSA.org Annual Meeting Home page
There is some pretty incredible modeling coming out of Caltech re the Southetn Calif onshore and offshore fault system that well applies to the Cascadia zone off Eureka, Oregon and Washington, as well as the SF Bay Area
The USGS UCERF3, 2013, is already several years behind the most recent analysis and computational efforts from Caltech Seismo Lab
While a is a valuable update from UCERF2 for alerting the general statewide public about the increasing risk of large earthquakes affecting So Cal, it ignores the great risk to Humboldt, Oregon and Washington of the Cascadia subduction mega earthquake event potential.
The greatest risk is rupture on multiple faults in the southern San Andreas fault system that would drastically affect the LA Basin
Up to date knowledge of 3D fault system interplay and stress loading is critical to a better understanding going forward
Posted by Safety first
a resident of Green Acres
on Mar 12, 2015 at 9:07 pm
a resident of Green Acres
on Mar 12, 2015 at 9:07 pm
Reminds me of this excellent article Sue Dremann did of neighborhoods doing group seismic foundation upgrades together to save money and get it done:
Web Link
