Donald Trump says there is more than enough testing capacity already in the US. Obviously, widespread testing is one key to reopening the economy. Why is testing availability not reaching the general public?

There's a simple reason for that: -45 is lying yet again.

There are nowhere near enough tests to do any kind of screening process. And if anyone tries to get tests from entities outside of the administration (See: Maryland Governor Larry Hogan purchasing kits from South Korea) -- they get attacked by -45.

A lose-lose proposition.

Wouldn’t we have to do repeated, rapid result and accurate testing fir testing to make a material difference

I am always astounded about full-throated statements about Korea, or Taiwan, or Japan, etc., where oviously people have not closely looked.
To get going, here is a world map from U. of Washington in Seattle:
U-Dub //hgis.uw.edu/virus/

The Singapore Christian News Agency CNA is also a solid source of information:
//bit.ly/2wv51Lu

Worldometers, as the name says, covers the world country by country, for example:
//www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
//www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/singapore
//www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea
Replace the name withe country name of your choice, as in e.g. taiwan, germany, italy, ... and you will see.

And finally, I have written about the US', actually more: Trump's: problems, since 3/15/20120, the day I ordered non-woven fabric masks, and regular surgical masks from China, via Amazon. I had immediately noticed that this were separate, probably small, Chinese companies. The 50 surgical masks I ordered surely made no difference for the world dependence on the 120Million masks China made every day. Up from 200Million a month in November.

About masks 3/15/2020
//bit.ly/2UdeoHr
Impeach 3/20/2020
//bit.ly/2X4x53d
About sick leave 3/26/2020
//bit.ly/2UGqk60

As you will see, I believed, and believe, that the Trumpist's statements
(1) masks are useless, on the one side, but are
(2) desperately needed for the professionals,
was a cover-up for the negligence of the Trump Administration.

May I point out that my mask order happened one week before the sainted Jerold Kushner, in charge of Corona Virus pandemic preparations, ordered the first batch ever for the US Government. So competent!

We also bought a UVC box to sterilize our smart phones. And the masks!

The description only mentions bacteria, but the wavelength of 254nm sits at the peak of the DNA kill capacity for virus'. The box has the correct size for the surgical masks. Ask Amazon for "UV Phone Sanitizer", and there are now about a dozen different ones.

Addition to the previous comment:
Since PA-Online, for a reason not clear to me, limits the URLs, I stripped the https: in front of the //

So //bit.ly/2wv51Lu has to become Web Link to be functional.

My Firefox does it automatically if I ^ctrl-c ---> ^ctrl-v the expression in the google command line.

Paul Krugmann mentioned in one of his opinion pieces how Germant helps the economy from down-spiraling, by giving money to small business (not Airbus) and independent artists and other gog workers.
On the example of Berlin you can see here, how awell fuinctioning Governement, which has not been drowned in a bath tub by astro turfers, tea parties, ang freedom caucusers:
So what does the City of Berlin do:
Web Link

I agree that we need a plan for gradually reopening, and metrics that people can understand, but, we aren't currently meeting the most important metric now. At the county level, SCC cases increased by 9.43% in the last week, SMC cases increased by 28%. Web Link Statewide, growth is at the 5% level-- but, still exponential, still doubling every 2 weeks. Web Link Unfortunately, a week or two ago, people were not being careful enough. People need to think harder about how to avoid exposure, we need more and better PPE-- for all of us, better masks, plenty of disposable gloves, take a shower after shopping -- etc. We all need to do better. And, we need more and better testing. More and better PPE for healthcare workers. I know that everyone is getting very antsy, but, we just are not there yet.

Testing is not necessary to keep people safe with an asymptomatic virus. Numbers will be analyzed and argued about for years.The only way to move forward is for Mayors to require masks, social distancing and hand sanitizer, and let businesses start to open May 1 in a phased way...doctors, dentists, elective surgery, outside businesses, beaches, parks, the first week, retail week 2, then other businesses with a limit to customers..10 for small retail etc. No one has to go out if they don’t want to.

I 100% agree with Opehphase, and using an increase in COVID - 19 cases is not a valid metric, since we are finally able to do more testing, which will show an increase in positive COVID-19 cases. It's the ICU's, hospitals beds that should help us understand "the curve".

Santa Clara and other counties should start the strategy to open up, with the premise that everyone is an asymptomatic spreader. Do the social distancing, mask requirement, and give guidelines on encouraging the wearing of eyewear, not touching your eyes, and encouragement of hand sanitizer at the entrance of each business. BTW more testing equals more cases of course, that is a poor measurement to open up....and you could get a boomerang effect where people don’t want to get tested because of the threats from bureaucrats to put them in a random hotel or worse....then violate their privacy and put them in some tracing database for months or years.

26,000,000 million unemployed and counting the last 5 weeks, has wiped out all the job creation from the 2008/2009 recession in less than 2 months! Our politicians keep on moving the goal posts, first it's flatten the curve, now testing and tracing, pretty soon it will be antibody testing , then it will be need a vaccine before we get people back to work.

If our hospitals are in such dire straits why are giving ventilators away Mr. Newson, now elective surgeries are ok . Yet not even on fraction of easing to allow people to get back to work after 5 weeks of SIP. People should be outraged, I am but probably most of you happy to keep zooming while others unemployed.

[Post removed.]

New York just reported a study confirming the ones from Los Angeles and Santa Clara about the mortality rate being closer to 0.5% .

What is the most annoying thing here is that anyone who intelligently suggests methods or ideas about how to reopen the county/state, there are others who immediately shout them down. They sound angry, and they sound as if they are not willing to listen, hear, discuss or anything else. They are willing to stay at home for who knows how long, working away while probably getting paid, not willing to move an inch on their dogmatic views.

The fact that many people are really suffering. People are suffering financially, suffering mentally and emotionally. People's lives are upside down, and we have no end in sight. In fact instead of easing restrictions as Napa has done the reverse is happening as we find more and more reasons to make life more difficult. Whether it is the closing down of a local small nursery, the suggestion that a solo gardener coming to a home with his own tools to tidy up and mow the grass or the suggestion that we should wear masks - not only while grocery shopping but while walking outside in the parks where we are not anywhere near anyone else who is walking. Joggers and bike riders sweating are not the same as a walk in the sunshine at a very sedentary pace. These tightening of the restrictions are making life even more difficult and appear hypocritical when we see the parks and city owned landscaping regularly being maintained by city workers.

We have Caltrans doing highway maintenance yet all residential construction seems to have ended. Essential stores are open that sell anything from hardware, clothing, plants, and food, under the names of Target, Costco, Ace and Home Depot, but small stores selling the same items are deemed not essential and must close, even though the owners of these businesses are likely to bankrupt themselves without income.

I am not suggesting that reopening the area overnight to the way it was before, but bringing in the ability of people to get back to work, businesses to reopen and people start earning some money so that they can resume financial peace of mind. We need to start looking at the ways this can be done safely.

And, we need to be able to discuss these things without name calling or being treated like traitors, criminals or anything to do with political leanings or trolls.

We need to be able to discuss rationally.

So, Dr. Cody says restrictions can't be eased until there is enough personal protective equipment for medical staff to safely work, but then county health staff say whether they have enough is a moving target with no set metric? That's not transparent at all, and they need to come up with some metrics. Saying "no" is the easy part, but we've moved beyond that phase, and a mere "no" to easing restrictions doesn't cut it anymore.

Posted by paul, a resident of Adobe-Meadow

>> New York just reported a study confirming the ones from Los Angeles and Santa Clara about the mortality rate being closer to 0.5% .

(Just a reminder that many experts predicted or assumed early on that the rate of asymptomatic/mild infections was high. But, I'm still not sure about the statistical validity of these antibody results. We'll see.)

I wonder how the life expectancy of baby boomers will actually turn out after this is all said and done. I guess their children and grandchildren won't miss the 2-3 extra years or whatever that grandma or grandpa might have had? After all, the economy must roll on.

Posted by Resident, a resident of Another Palo Alto neighborhood

>> What is the most annoying thing here is that anyone who intelligently suggests methods or ideas about how to reopen the county/state, there are others who immediately shout them down.

I, for one, am interested in the "how". I admit that I don't think we quite understand what is needed. As I've noted before, although NYC seems to have peaked, the last I checked California was still doubling every two weeks, and SCC and SMC growth was faster than that. We've been pretty strict here, "officially" for the last three weeks -- so, why is the rate still growing so fast. We need to understand that and fix it, and, perhaps, if we understand how new infections were still happening (that lag again), then, maybe we can understand what a rational path to reopen will be. I don't think reopening high-touch services, haircut places, nail salons, etc., including bars, theaters, and sit-down restaurants, should be first on the list. I can see construction, where people have been trained, and so on. But, as far as I can see, touching/breathing the same air, are problems. Yes, I know that many of these occupations are people who are very low income-- we need to support them in other ways.

Even before this crisis - I have never understood how nail salons were ever allowed to operate. These fake long nails are unsanitary, and there is a long list of diseases associated with having them.(bacterial, fungal, and viral). Pedicures as well.
------------------
Covid is shed in feces after a person may feel well enough to go to work. You would have to trust that the person thoroughly washed their hands after using the restroom.

People who feel fine may be transmitting the virus to customers, or while preparing food and drinks. Even with gloves, if they touch their eyes or adjust their mask, the gloves are no longer sanitary unless they are washed thoroughly with soap.
-------------------

And because you can contract the virus through the eyes, people should also be wearing protective glasses.

I know that our family will ever eat out again.
We have gotten used to hair cuts at home, and preparing our own food.
It was hard to get used to, but now it has become routine and normal.
Just like meetings on zoom.

Hospitality industries can try opening, but I wouldn't expect a lot of customers.
So sorry for everyone.

Posted by Anon,
"As I've noted before, although NYC seems to have peaked, the last I checked California was still doubling every two weeks, and SCC and SMC growth was faster than that."

That's not at all what the SCC dashboard shows. There's even a graph to show the actual "flattening of the curve." Plus, we were down to 1 death yesterday. I keep watching for a zero, and I can feel it's close!

As for ideas for how/what to reopen, I've been thinking, after walking past Scoop, that small businesses could easily reopen first. They could let one or two people in at a time, and get going again. Heck, the few times I've been in Chantal Guillon, I've been the only one in there. Everyone knows by now how to line up six feet apart outside, wait to be allowed in, etc. So any place that isn't too big could handle the social distancing by now. And the businesses will all have to behave a little like the Soup Nazi, and run a very tight, structured purchasing process.

Cody said: "the county needs to ramp up testing capabilities so they are broadly available to test anyone with symptoms, including expansive testing in jails, homeless encampments, nursing facilities and other places where "accelerated transmission" is possible."

What is interesting in Cody's statement is what her statement leaves unsaid (the dog that didn't bark). What are these OTHER places where "accelerated transmission" is possible?

San Jose Airport? (owner: City of San Jose)
Caltrain? (owner: SF, SM, & SC Counties)
McEnery Convention Center? (owner: City of San Jose)
Levi Stadium? (owner: City of Santa Clara)
SAP Center? (owner: City of San Jose)
VTA Bus & Light Rail? (owner: Santa Clara County)
Santa Clara Convention Center? (owner: City of Santa Clara}
Santa Clara Fairgrounds? (owner: Santa Clara County)

I am really starting to feel angst over this. I've never claimed to be a very social person, needing to be with people and active all day and every day but this is dragging me down. I have learned to deal with it with the help of my grandson, Ryan, who is living with me. He does the grocery shopping for us. I take a walk to Ramos Park every day and walk around the loop a couple times and then sit down on a bench and take pics and video clips of people in the park that day. I cook more and try new recipes. I call old friends to see how they're doing. I do all the puzzles available in the SF Chron, SJ Mercury News, and local papers. I do a little gardening...mowing lawns and trimming lawn edges and shrubs. I'm thinking about taking a trip to Georgia just to get a haircut. lol!

Our numbers are plainly dropping significantly: Web Link We're at like 20-30 new cases per day countywide, and that's with increasing testing capacity. Palo Alto has had 5 new cases between April 13 and April 22. Even if cases were doubling every two weeks (as some are claiming -- I don't see it because people also recover from this (or, sadly don't), so the number of active current infections can't be growing that fast). The numbers are so low that we could go for quite some time without overtaxing our hospitals. I think we need to be out (within reason -- no schools, no movie theaters/restaurants, but back to work in conditions that aren't crowded for those who need to work) unless we can show a reason to be in, not vice versa. If we have to revert to more strict measures again later, we can do that. But why waste this time when people could be earning money while our hospitals underutilized? If the numbers go up again, which they are bound to do until we have a vaccine, we should revise our decisions then.

Maybe we'll get some loosening May 3, I hope so. I really feel for people who are suffering financially right now and not seeing evidence of a hospital crisis (locally) that might justify their suffering.

" But why waste this time when people could be earning money while our hospitals underutilized?"

Because the more we mingle the more people will get Covid 19 and some of them will die.

This is a very delicate balance where fortunately hospital capacity is no longer the limiting condition.

So the new societal limiting condition is how many deaths are acceptable.

The new personal limiting condition is how much a risk I am going to take that if I mingle then I might get the virus and, even with ICU care, I might die.

Posted by S_mom, a resident of Community Center

>> Our numbers are plainly dropping significantly

Wednesday was especially good, but, one day isn't, statistically speaking, a trend. For some reason, there is a pattern of more results coming in on Fridays, so, let's look Saturday afternoon and see how it looked for the week. I hope you are correct that we're finally seeing a real drop.

I still have a problem with the calculus that says that one person's nail salon job trumps 3 years of playing with grandchildren for someone else.

When the stay in place order is modified and more movement is allowed that does not mean that more movement is required.

With individual freedom comes individual responsibility.

The best personal strategy will be to mingle very carefully and SELF limit the number of people you have contact with.

For example, each day you go out count the number of people that you have close contact with and try to keep that number as small as possible.

For some people their jobs consist of provide in person services to others (grocery clerks, bus drivers, mail carriers, etc.) will mean the number is larger than it might be for someone whose job does not require serving others.

We've had around 40 or fewer cases countywide per day since April 11, tending towards a decrease, from what I can see on the dashboard (which is really hard to read, I wish they'd provide a table).

If you aren't willing to accept any deaths then we pretty much have to stay like this for 18 months (best case) until there is a vaccine. I don't think that's actually possible -- we'll have rioting and looting long before then. You can't leave a huge proportion of the population without income long-term. And saying we should find other ways to support them is easy to say, really hard to do.

I thought the goal was not to prevent all deaths, but to prevent deaths that are preventable with hospital intervention. Keep in mind that we don't stay inside despite other risks -- we could prevent all flu deaths by staying inside too, but we don't do that.

I think we can still have a balance and try to prevent some deaths by slowing the speed at which the virus spreads so that fewer people catch it before we have a vaccine. I'm not suggesting we go back to normal -- schools stay closed, a lot of people can continue to work from home, the elderly can shelter in place -- but I do think we should allow low income individuals to resume work as much as possible, maybe in altered conditions and with masks. It's easy to be flippant about nail salons while you comfortably work from home with no income reduction, but those are real people, many have kids, and we are going to leave them destitute for longer than necessary.

@S_mom

The calls for re-opening started even while cases were increasing. Dumb. But, yes, we finally had one good week. IMHO, two good weeks are the minimum necessary to think about changing anything, given the dynamics of this virus. But, we also have to think hard about what that means. An example of what happens when you have initial success, and then, relax:

Web Link

Viruses are not like sports teams, or, combatants in wars, or other metaphors or analogies that depend on human psychology. Viruses don't know about purpose. They don't know about momentum, or, morale. The one process they are programmed to do is to replicate and transmit.

I can't help feeling like our leaders think we are children who need micromanaging. Why not let businesses decide when and how to open, and let customers decide if they want to patronize them under those conditions or not. Forcing businesses to be locked down until they are past the point of survival seems un-American to me. I'm not very good at math, but even I know that more testing results in more cases when there may really be fewer cases since testing wasn't as widespread at first. Freedom balanced with reason should be the pattern. Let the people decide for themselves. We're not as stupid as you think.

[Post removed.]

Posted by Valerie Cooper, a resident of another community

>> I can't help feeling like our leaders think we are children who need micromanaging. Why not let businesses decide when and how to open, and let customers decide if they want to patronize them under those conditions or not.

Many innocent third parties can be affected by your actions, and, people tend to fall back on old patterns of behavior in what seem like similar circumstances.

Case in point: Governor Newsom chastising Southern California beachgoers because, while permitted to go to the beach under the "social distancing" rules, instead, crowded together with strangers, and friends from other households, turning what could have been safe outdoor activity into a virus-transmission festival: Web Link

>> Forcing businesses to be locked down until they are past the point of survival seems un-American to me.

Nobody wants to do that. Let's work on solutions for that.

>> I'm not very good at math, but even I know that more testing results in more cases when there may really be fewer cases since testing wasn't as widespread at first.

Please read this article, which explains the work that some people who are "good at math" did with respect to the virus spread:

Web Link

After doing a lot of analysis of available statistics, these are a couple of key findings:

" [...] Of 51 countries studied, the report "found evidence that the transmission of COVID-19 is decreasing in 24 countries, i.e. the effective reproductive number is less than 1, using data up to April 16, 2020."

"[...] despite the highly heterogeneous populations represented by these countries, the growth of COVID-19 outbreak can be reverted.""

But, this is the part that you need to understand, even if you are not good at math:

" [...] There's an asymmetry, however: The disease can infect people much faster than infections can be reduced through quarantine and other measures.

"We estimated that in countries with decreasing transmission, the rate of decrease is in general less than 0.1/day," the authors observed.

"Based on data from 8 European countries, the US and China, we previously estimated that in the absence of intervention efforts, the epidemic can grow at rates between 0.19-0.29/day." "

This is important!!

The (exponential) decrease under social distancing is much slower than the exponential increase without intervention. If we let go, at a minimum we're going to be doubling every 4 days. Again. But, we won't know it immediately, and then, it will take a much longer time to slow the disease spread. Again.

>> Freedom balanced with reason should be the pattern. Let the people decide for themselves. We're not as stupid as you think.

It isn't that most people are "stupid". And, we all want our freedom back. The majority of people have been very cooperative. There are two problems: your "freedom" directly conflicts with my "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness". If everyone does their own thing, some of us will die soon instead of living another decade. Are you OK with shortening the life expectancy of vulnerable groups by 2-3 years?

The second problem is that this particular virus is very, very stealthy.
People can be completely asymptomatic, or, only slightly sick, but still highly infectious, for several days. People have trouble thinking that they may be infectious to others even though they feel perfectly fine.

In the end, a virus doesn't "care" one way or the other about our human considerations. It blindly reproduces and transmits. We can interrupt that, but, it requires a different balance of *freedoms* than we are accustomed to.

[Post removed.]

Posted by Resident, a resident of Old Palo Alto

[Portion removed.]

>> We are going to see a big increase in cases in the community. And housing all these potential spreaders

"potential spreaders" ? That is all of us, you know. Presumably all international travelers are going to need a 14-day quarantine. Beyond that, what makes them any more "potential spreaders" than, say, you, returning from your vacation in Italy or Spain ? Or your cruise ship trip?

The "problem" isn't one of skin color, ethnicity, or language. The problem is the virus, SARS-Cov-2. It is a virus, it doesn't "care". At the moment, all we can do is to change our own behavior. If and when there are effective antivirals for this, if and when there are vaccines, then, things will change. Until then, we have to change.

@Anon
Potential spreaders are ones who have been outside their home, or traveled from outside this area.

We haven't been overseas or traveled by air in 30 years. We drive to conferences. Lived (born) here 65 years. Husband and I have been isolating since end of January since we have known about this outbreak. We are definitely not super spreaders of anything.

No one we know, has acted so carelessly and taken a cruise or vacation during this time (January - onwards). We have both canceled 2 major meetings out of state to avoid possibly contracting or spreading this virus.

People were slow to react. The travel restrictions should have started in January - allowing no flights into the US (to anyone). People were traveling out of China and the Wuhan area to all over the world before January 24, for CNY, school, and business. Some were trying to flee to avoid the virus, and lock-down.
Governments were too slow to react and stop flights.
I don't know why they (including the US) were not paying attention to what was happening in China.

We do not have to host and welcome and hire and give medical care to any foreigners into our country.
Foreign travels have been known to lie about their medical conditions and knowingly travel while infectious, or pregnant.
We rarely saw hepatitis, hemorrhagic fevers, and other emerging viral diseases in our community. Now we have to treat these people.

Hopefully things will change after this.